Forecasting and scheduling built around the deviation settlement window
REFlux combines numerical weather prediction, plant SCADA telemetry, and historical generation patterns to produce day-ahead and intra-day forecasts across 39 sites, revised at every 15-minute block to minimize deviation penalties under CERC and SERC regulations.
Forecasting in a vacuum creates penalties on the grid.
Most forecasting providers deliver numbers by 05:30 AM and walk away. When cloud cover shifts over Rajasthan at 11:00 AM or wind drops across Tamil Nadu at 14:00, standard models lag by 45 minutes.
Under CERC DSM Regulations 2022 and state SERC frameworks, every block of deviation beyond the statutory tolerance band incurs financial penalties against the plant PPA tariff.
Submitting manual revisions across state SLDC portals within the strict 6-block advance notice lead window is slow and error-prone during sudden weather changes.
How REFlux operates in production
Telemetry & Weather Ingestion
Ingests 1-minute inverter and pyranometer feeds from RealSync alongside 4 independent Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models (ECMWF, GFS, NCMRWF, WRF).
Machine Learning Ensembling
Runs gradient boosted trees and physics-informed neural networks trained on historical site generation, soiling coefficients, and temperature derating.
Statutory Schedule Generation
Generates day-ahead 96-block dispatch schedules compliant with state grid codes and regional boundary metering specifications.
Real-Time Deviation Monitoring
Compares live generation against scheduled dispatch every 15-minute time block, flagging potential penalty breaches in advance.
Automated SLDC Revision Window
Pre-drafts optimized revision schedules when generation deviates >10%, ready for instant one-click approval or automated SLDC portal submission.
Commercial DSM Reconciliation
Calculates DSM commercial exposure in real time against state regulatory slab rates, reconciling monthly Regional Power Committee (RPC) accounts.
Engineered capabilities without the fluff
Forecasting Engine
- Day-ahead forecast delivered before statutory morning gate closure across all operational assets.
- Intra-day rolling forecast updated every 15-minute block with 1-minute real-time telemetry assimilation.
- Ensemble model combining physical irradiance conversion and historical learning algorithms.
- Inverter derating and tracker failure auto-compensation.
Scheduling & SLDC Gateway
- Automated schedule formatting for state SLDC, RLDC, and REMC portal ingestion.
- Revision management tracking the statutory 6-block advance submission window (effective from block N+6).
- Support for up to 16 daily revision slots per state grid code regulations.
- Automated submission receipts and transmission audit logging.
DSM & Commercial Analytics
- Live calculation of deviation penalty exposure based on state-specific SERC slab formulas.
- Root cause penalty attribution (weather variance, equipment failure, grid curtailment).
- Virtual pooling simulation for multi-site portfolios in the same state control area.
- Monthly RPC DSM statement reconciliation and dispute documentation generation.
Protocols & Grid Connectors
Across 39 operating solar and wind sites totaling 2.46+ GW capacity
Questions regarding REFlux
Deploy REFlux across your portfolio
Schedule a 30-minute operational demo with our domain engineering team. We will review your plant single-line diagram and current SLDC submission workflows.