Forecasting and scheduling built around the deviation settlement window
REFlux combines numerical weather prediction, plant SCADA telemetry, and historical generation patterns to produce day-ahead and intra-day forecasts across 50+ sites, revised at every 15-minute block to minimize deviation penalties under CERC and SERC regulations.
Forecasting in a vacuum creates penalties on the grid.
Most forecasting providers deliver numbers by 05:30 AM and walk away. When cloud cover shifts over Rajasthan at 11:00 AM or wind drops across Tamil Nadu at 14:00, standard models lag by 45 minutes.
Under CERC DSM Regulations 2022 and state SERC frameworks, every block of deviation beyond the statutory tolerance band incurs financial penalties against the plant PPA tariff.
Submitting manual revisions across state SLDC portals within the strict 6-block advance notice lead window is slow and error-prone during sudden weather changes.
How REFlux operates in production
Weather Fusion Multi-Source Ingestion
Ingests 1-minute inverter and pyranometer feeds from on-site SCADA alongside 15+ meteorological and satellite feeds (ECMWF, NOAA GFS, NCMRWF, Meteoblue, Himawari-9 satellite, ERA5 reanalysis).
Machine Learning Ensembling
Runs gradient boosted trees and physics-informed neural networks trained on historical site generation, soiling coefficients, and temperature derating.
Statutory Schedule Generation
Generates day-ahead 96-block dispatch schedules compliant with state grid codes and regional boundary metering specifications.
Real-Time Deviation Monitoring
Compares live generation against scheduled dispatch every 15-minute time block, flagging potential penalty breaches in advance.
Automated SLDC Revision Window
Pre-drafts optimized revision schedules when generation deviates >10%, ready for instant one-click approval or automated SLDC portal submission.
Commercial DSM Reconciliation
Calculates DSM commercial exposure in real time against state regulatory slab rates, reconciling monthly Regional Power Committee (RPC) accounts.
Multi-source weather intelligence & live SCADA validation.
Why single-model forecasts fail in Indian renewable corridors: when cloud formations shift over Rajasthan or wind fronts drop in Tamil Nadu, static feeds lag by 45+ minutes. WeatherFusion™ combines 15+ global meteorological models, geostationary satellites, and on-site SCADA loggers into an ensemble engine built for zero DSM penalties.
From satellite irradiance to statutory grid dispatch
15+ Weather Sources
Ingests real-time feeds from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, NCMRWF, Meteoblue, Himawari-9 satellite, and local plant SCADA pyranometers.
Engineered specifically for Indian renewable operations
Dynamic Best Model Today Ranking
Every plant microclimate exhibits unique atmospheric behaviors. WeatherFusion continuously evaluates model divergence live, automatically crowning and weighting the top-performing provider (ECMWF, GFS, NCMRWF, etc.) for that exact site rather than locking into a single static vendor.
Forecast vs On-Site SCADA Benchmarking
Correlates forecasted meteorological variables against calibrated on-site pyranometers and anemometers in real time: GHI, GTI, Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, Cloud Cover for Solar; Hub-height Wind Speed and Direction for Wind.
Mathematical Rigor: Normalized MAE (nMAE)
Evaluates forecast quality strictly via Normalized Mean Absolute Error: Accuracy (%) = 100 − nMAE, normalized against peak benchmark clear-sky irradiance (1,000 W/m²) or rated capacity. Backed by full MAPE, RMSE, Pearson R, and R² regression analytics.
Predictive Confidence & Telemetry Health
Provides control room operators with clear confidence ratings before market gate closure: Optimal (≥90%), Acceptable (70–89%), or Sub-optimal (<70%). Features 24/7 sensor health monitoring to catch missing provider packets before scheduling windows lock.
Integrated Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) & Satellite Feeds
Standard forecasting setups rely on a single vendor feed. REFlux continuously ingests, checks packet health, and validates every major global and regional weather model against your actual plant SCADA meters.
Engineered capabilities without the fluff
Weather Fusion Meteorological Engine
- Multi-model NWP fusion across ECMWF (0.10°/0.25°), NOAA GFS (0.15°), NCMRWF (0.125°), and Meteoblue (0.30°).
- Real-time Normalized MAE (nMAE) benchmark ranking to dynamically select the best-performing model per coordinate.
- High-resolution satellite cloud movement tracking via ACTSAT Himawari-9 (0.05° resolution, ~5 km).
- Continuous ground-truth correlation against on-site pyranometers (GHI, GTI) and anemometers (hub-height wind speed).
Forecasting Engine
- Day-ahead forecast delivered before statutory morning gate closure across all operational assets.
- Intra-day rolling forecast updated every 15-minute block with 1-minute real-time telemetry assimilation.
- Ensemble model combining physical irradiance conversion and historical learning algorithms.
- Inverter derating and tracker failure auto-compensation.
Scheduling & SLDC Gateway
- Automated schedule formatting for state SLDC, RLDC, and REMC portal ingestion.
- Revision management tracking the statutory 6-block advance submission window (effective from block N+6).
- Support for up to 16 daily revision slots per state grid code regulations.
- Automated submission receipts and transmission audit logging.
DSM & Commercial Analytics
- Live calculation of deviation penalty exposure based on state-specific SERC slab formulas.
- Root cause penalty attribution (weather variance, equipment failure, grid curtailment).
- Virtual pooling simulation for multi-site portfolios in the same state control area.
- Monthly RPC DSM statement reconciliation and dispute documentation generation.
Protocols & Grid Connectors
Across 50+ operating solar and wind sites totaling 2.46+ GW capacity
Questions regarding REFlux
Deploy REFlux across your portfolio
Schedule a 30-minute operational demo with our domain engineering team. We will review your plant single-line diagram and current SLDC submission workflows.